Daily Active Users (DAU)
- The formula for DAUs is the number of unique users who have engaged with the app on a given day.
- For example, if an app had 1,000 unique users on Monday, 1,200 unique users on Tuesday, and 900 unique users on Wednesday, then the DAUs for that week so far would be 3,100.
DAU Growth Rate table example
| Growth Rate | DAU (End of Month 1) | DAU (Month 2) | DAU (Month 3) | DAU (Month 6) | DAU (Month 9) | DAU (Month 12) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | 5,050 | 5,101 | 5,152.01 | 6,079.8 | 6,637.87 | 7,227.98 |
| 3% | 5,150 | 5,303 | 5,459 | 6,639.11 | 7,532.32 | 8,821.9 |
| 5% | 5,250 | 5,413.5 | 5,566.33 | 7,254.47 | 8,848.15 | 14,934.3 |
| 10% | 5,500 | 6,050 | 6,655 | 9,738.26 | 13,817.94 | 44,037.8 |
| 20% | 6,000 | 7,200 | 8,640 | 14,912 | 27,648 | 282,934.3 |
| 30% | 6,500 | 8,450 | 11,185 | 25,816.5 | 75,947.5 | 3,557,926.9 |
DAU Decline Rate table example
| Decline Rate | DAU (End of Month 1) | DAU (End of Month 2) | DAU (End of Month 3) | DAU (End of Month 6) | DAU (End of Month 9) | DAU (End of Month 12) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1% | 4,950 | 4,899 | 4,848.99 | 4,761.2 | 4,672.13 | 4,582.02 |
| -3% | 4,850 | 4,796.5 | 4,743.67 | 4,624.87 | 4,515.82 | 4,405.77 |
| -5% | 4,750 | 4,712.5 | 4,654.33 | 4,537.53 | 4,450.48 | 4,363.43 |
| -10% | 4,500 | 4,050 | 3,655 | 2,873.26 | 2,314.79 | 1,932.38 |
| -20% | 4,000 | 3,200 | 2,512 | 1,757 | 1,405 | 1,124 |
| -30% | 3,500 | 2,425 | 1,738.5 | 1,118.45 | 830.645 | 598.651 |
DAU Projections Formula
Projecting the growth of Daily Active Users (DAU) on an app over a year starting at 5,000 at different growth rates per month can be done using the formula:
DAU(t) = DAU(0) * (1 + r)^t
Where:
- DAU(t) is the projected number of DAU at time t (in months)
- DAU(0) is the starting number of DAU, which is 5,000
- r is the growth rate per month, which can be 3%, 5%, 10%, or 20%
- t is the number of months
To calculate the projected number of DAU at the end of the year, we will use 12 months as t:
- At 3% growth per month, DAU(12) = 5,000 * (1 + 0.03)^12 = 8,821.9
- At 5% growth per month, DAU(12) = 5,000 * (1 + 0.05)^12 = 14,934.3
- At 10% growth per month, DAU(12) = 5,000 * (1 + 0.1)^12 = 44,037.8
- At 20% growth per month, DAU(12) = 5,000 * (1 + 0.2)^12 = 282,934.3
In summary, with 3% monthly growth, the app would have 8,821.9 DAUs at the end of the year. With 5% monthly growth, the app would have 14,934.3 DAUs at the end of the year. With 10% monthly growth, the app would have 44,037.8 DAUs at the end of the year. And with 20% monthly growth, the app would have 282,934.3 DAUs at the end of the year.
It's worth noting that these projections are based on a steady growth rate, which is not always the case in the real world. There are many factors that can affect the growth of an app, such as changes in the market, user needs, or competition.